So the Sochi deal is likely another pause in the fighting, rather than a permanent fix.
Moscow is unlikely to be too fussed. Their key goal is becoming the new power in the region, and this settlement, almost directly replacing US forces with their own police and political clout, does that.
The Syrian Kurds will end up in a war of attrition with the pro-Turkish rebels that populate new areas President Erdogan has seized. Damascus will likely be fine with that, as it will aid their goal of returning full regime sovereignty to Syria.
And the Kurds should be ready to be sold out again — as this life raft demands they put their possessions on board first.
There was always some inevitability to the alliance between Syrian Kurds and the regime. So isn’t this just the US doing what it had to do, but at a faster pace, as Trump likes to suggest? No. As the US mission is now left with the worst of all worlds.
Even the US special forces withdrawal was complicated by their commander in chief. You can’t claim you want to keep troops safe when you broadcast their extraction before they can implement it. Still, even at their nastiest, the Syrian Kurds could only manage to throw potatoes. Trump is their real enemy here.
Remember, NATO was formed to keep Russia’s former Soviet empire in check. Now, Russian military police have unrestrained access to hundreds of kilometers of NATO’s southern border, at the invitation of a NATO member.
That is something Vladimir Putin can only have dreamed of.