The general assumption, according to most election models that show President Donald Trump winning re-election, has been that it all goes out the window if there’s a recession.
Trump’s fate is tied to the economy, after all, and once that comes tumbling down, the president is done for.
Not so fast, say the folks at Oxford Economics. The forecasting and quantitative analysis firm says that, barring massive economic upheaval, the president will likely win a second term in office.
According to Bloomberg, Oxford is the most sanguine of the forecasting firms whose work they examined, at least if you’re a Trump supporter. Ray Fair of Yale and Moody’s Analytics both see Trump winning — if the status quo is maintained economically, that is.
Oxford Economics went further. According to an October report, the firm thinks that even a recession wouldn’t hurt Trump that much.
“Analysts at the firm see a 5-point win for Trump in the popular vote, even in the case of a recession, thanks to low unemployment, weak inflation, and relatively stable income gains,” Bloomberg reported.
“Their model accurately predicted the popular vote in 16 of the last 18 elections, going back to 1948. They missed Richard Nixon winning in 1968 and Jimmy Carter in 1976.”
The only way that economic contraction could kill the Trump re-election campaign would be if it were severe, Oxford Economics said.
It would, however, require “rising tariffs, lower corporate profits, and a stock market downturn,” Bloomberg reported.