Once it is understood that the necessary 20 Senate Republicans will never vote to convict the president, and once it is realized that the American people may see the president’s anti-corruption motivation as entirely appropriate, it is likely that the House Democrat leadership will realize that a partisan vote of censure is much less risky than a trial in the Senate.
If, as expected, Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report and U.S. Attorney John Durham’s criminal investigation reveal severe deep state misconduct in the supposedly scandal-free Obama Administration, the Democrats may realize that a purely partisan impeachment, with virtually no evidentiary basis, will only harm their long-term position.
The sensible tactic would be to abort the impeachment proceedings through a censure vote. But, as the proceedings have shown so far, good sense seems to be in short supply in the House. Unless the deep state wants to further its own demise, however, and unless the Democrat candidates for president want to spend a good deal of the campaign season off the hustings and in a Senate proceeding they will lose, we are probably witnessing the beginning of the end of the Trump impeachment.