Don’t put too much stock in all those New Year’s predictions you’re hearing and seeing about American politics in 2020. Anyone saying they know what will happen is probably just trying to get our attention.
Both conclusions come from the same place. No matter how many rational arguments or pieces of evidence are deployed to justify it, these are statements straight from the gut.
Fact is, no one knows or can know what will happen to Trump in 2020 — or to his challengers. No one knows what else will happen in 2020 that will affect and perhaps determine the November outcome.
So at this point no one should rest easy, but no one should despair. It is best not to bet the ranch at any stage of the game, and surely not one year out.
The one thing we can safely say is that there’s nothing that can be safely said. History, our one best guide, directs us to keep an open mind and await further developments.