China Growth Slows To 29 Year Low In 2019 Despite Q4 Rebound

ith phase-one talks completed in October (and signed this week), tonight’s Q4 GDP and December smorgasbord of data is being keenly watched by the market for any signs that China’s massive credit stimulus has actually done any good at all.

Ahead of tonight’s key China data dump, State Grid, China’s largest utility company, has warned the rate of economic growth in the country could plunge to 4% within the next four years, according to internal forecasts.

“We were upbeat about China’s power demand five years ago because the economy was still robust and 7 or 8 percent GDP growth was the bottom line,” the official said. “No one expected growth to decelerate so sharply.” He warned that 4% growth by 2024 was the utility’s worst-case scenario.

And despite a YoY rise in China’s credit impulse, shadow financing continues to contract, while loans in the banking sector expanded, but not enough, expectations are for 6.0% GDP growth in Q4, the same as Q3…

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