It’s looking more like Trump will be reelected in 2020

One, the economy. Predictions about the United States being on the brink of a recession have not borne out yet. Instead, unemployment has remained at a 50-year low of 3.5%. Since Trump took office, the unemployment rate has averaged 3.9% — lower than any president at a comparable point in office since data started being kept in 1948. Recent data also undermines the Democratic argument that the gains have been limited to the very top. It makes it harder to run a “change” campaign in the face of such strong economic performance.

Two, foreign policy. Despite Democratic warnings, Trump’s decision to kill Iranian terrorist leader Qassem Soleimani did not trigger a war with Iran. Instead, when Iran retaliated without causing U.S. casualties, Trump prudently declared victory and avoided further escalation. To this point in his presidency, Trump has militarily intervened less than Barack Obama did. Under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. also managed to roll back the Islamic State and kill their leader, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi.

Three, impeachment has proven to be largely a bust for Democrats. Regardless of how one feels about the merits of the case itself, politically speaking, months of impeachment news has not significantly moved public opinion. At about 45%, Trump’s approval rating is within a point of where it was in September when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi launched impeachment hearings. Support for removal from office is heavily correlated with people’s underlying feelings about Trump.

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