Probable Democratic Primary Catastrophe

The headline is arguably not hyperbole. Three factors contribute to the current state of the primary. First, the split moderate vote. Second, the invasions Bloomberg and Bernie. And third, the coming contested convention. 

Bernie is currently leading the field in national polls. This is due almost entirely due to the split moderate vote. While Bloomberg + Biden + Pete + Amy is greater than Bernie’s support, Bernie gets bragging rights for the time being. There is no hope in sight any of the moderate candidates will drop out reasonably soon. Bloomberg is climbing in the polls. Biden still has a (shrinking) base of African American voters to fall back on. Pete has a combination of individual donations and larger donors to keep him going. Amy won’t drop out just to spite Pete. There is almost no hope for a fast coalescence around any moderate candidate. 

Second, The Democratic Party is being invaded by the far left and the center, represented by Bernie and Bloomberg, respectively. Bernie is not a Democrat; he is an independent. Although Mike Bloomberg is a registered Democrat as of October 2018, his history of jumping affiliations does not inspire confidence among rank and file democrats. The media narrative is that after Super Tuesday, only Bernie and Bloomberg remain. This theory, if true, would see no room for an in-between candidate (like Pete, Amy, or Warren). However, because moderate candidates are unlikely to drop out, it is more likely that Bloomberg and Bernie dominate the conversation while the various moderates siphon votes off from Bloomberg. Which leaves Bernie in the delegate lead, but mostly likely not enough to clinch the nomination. 

This brings us to the convention, which is very likely going to be contested. Last night, all candidates were asked whether the delegate leader should automatically get the nomination, even if they don’t achieve the threshold predefined by democratic rules. With the exception of Bernie, every single candidate wants to follow the rules.

Bernie does not. He already thinks that he is a special snowflake who deserves the nomination due to a predicted slim delegate lead. If a contested convention comes down to Bernie and Bloomberg, which it most likely will if / when the convention is contested, Democrats will enter into a damned if they do, damned if they don’t situation regarding Bernie. If Pete, Amy and Joe combine their delegates to put Bloomberg over the edge, most Bernie supporters won’t turnout to vote for Bloomberg. If Bernie is the nominee, he will mostly likely lose, due to the extremely concentrated support for democratic socialism in dark blue enclaves. 

At this point, a part of me is inclined to let Bernie get the nomination just so he can lose and democrats can move on to cultivating viable (read: Obama, not Hillary) third-way candidates. On the other hand, there is pussy-grabbing captain bone spurs, who continues his polices of family separation, tax cuts favoring the rich, denial of anthropogenic climate change, hostility towards abortion and trans rights, an incoherent foreign policy, etc. 

In my view, democrats are most likely doomed in 2020.

I hope I’m wrong. 

Probable Democratic Primary Catastrophe
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 19: Democratic presidential candidates (L-R) former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) react as raise their hands during the Democratic presidential primary debate at Paris Las Vegas on February 19, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Six candidates qualified for the third Democratic presidential primary debate of 2020, which comes just days before the Nevada caucuses on February 22. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
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