Joe Biden’s resurgence to become the Democrats’ presumptive nominee is opening new paths to defeat President Trump, swing-state polls show.
The big picture: If Biden can keep his current leads over Trump in general-election matchups, it could create opportunities for pickups of three big states — Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.
- That’s without hurting Dems’ chances to take back Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the key wins that sent Trump to the White House in 2016.
The Real Clear Politics national polling average shows that either Biden (+5.9%) or Sanders (+4.2%) would have been positioned to defeat Trump if the election were held today, but the role of the Electoral College means the results will come down to a handful of key states.
- Sanders’ endorsement of Biden on Monday shows a quick turn toward unity for Democrats. In 2016, it took Sanders until July to endorse Hillary Clinton.
By the numbers: Of the states that held primaries before the pandemic paralyzed the country, Biden ran up margins in the places that will matter most in November.
Florida would be the big general election prize, with 29 electoral votes. Polls show it’s the biggest reach for Biden — but it’s also the most crucial for Trump to keep.
- The RCP average puts the state at essentially a draw right now, with Biden leading Trump by 0.4 percentage points. In matchups against Sanders, Trump led by an average of 4.3 percentage points.
- Included in that average is a recent, robust UNF poll of 3,244 registered voters conducted in the first week of April that gave Biden a 6-point advantage over the president.
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ slow coronavirus responses have the potential to hurt Trump in November if voters associate infections, deaths or economic pain more broadly with Republican leadership.
https://www.axios.com/biden-trump-swing-state-polls-1174446d-0d60-4e1c-bf0d-d4e6d2e71f35.html