Third-party voters were a major factor helping President Trump’s 2016 victory, but early polling data suggest these voters could possibly hurt him in 2020 if they turn out in the same numbers and vote instead for Democratic opponent Joe Biden.
However, the Trump campaign said it believes it will tap into enough new voters — polls suggest Trump is gaining ground with minority voters, especially Latinos and African-Americans — to overcome any third-party swing votes to Biden.
During the 2016 election, the number of third-party voters far exceeded President Trump’s margin of victory in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from 2020 found that third-party voters from 2016 say they back Biden by a 2-to-1 margin. The polling found 47% percent said they plan to vote for Biden, 20% plan to vote for Trump, and 33% are unsure or say they’re backing “another candidate.”
“Here’s why this is significant: In 2016, Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes, while the combined Johnson/Stein vote was 223,599. (So Biden getting 47 percent of that third-party vote to Trump’s 20 percent easily overturns that ’16 margin.),” NBC News reported on Monday. “In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes, while there were 196,656 Johnson/Stein voters. (Again, Biden winning those third-party voters by a 2-to-1 margin reverses that outcome.) And in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by 22,748 votes, and the combined Johnson/Stein total was 137,746. (Ditto: Hillary Clinton would likely be president today if she had won those third-party voters by a 47 percent to 20 percent split.)”