Where are we headed?

I recently had a sobering realization: We do not have a consensus for constitutional democracy in this country. Most Americans value “my political goals” over “constitutional democracy.”

I fear that portends dark days ahead. Allow me to unpack that a bit.

First, some definitions:

Constitutional democracy: A political system in which power is allocated via free and fair elections, adheres to rules and traditions, and ensures equal rights and participation for all citizens.

My political goals: For some people, this is enactment of a specific political agenda such as abortion policy, taxation policy, environmental policy, etc.; for some, it is a broader ideological agenda whether liberal, conservative, radical, or religious; for some, it is more about “my side winning.” For most of us, it’s probably a mixture of the above.

As a liberal, it is clear to me that the Republican party has abandoned any quibbles with allowing constitutional democracy to stand in the way of achieving its political goals. It has embraced a President who openly disdains rules, traditions, and fairness in favor of “winning.” In service to that, they have smiled upon his eager acceptance of help from a foreign adversary and his obstruction of an investigation into that assistance. When he openly breaks the law or induces others to do so, the Republican response is, “Nobody outside the Beltway cares.” This President consistently maintains the approval of 40-45% of voters. He will probably get 45-49% of the vote.

Does that leave us with 51-60% of the populace as ferocious guardians of constitutional democracy? Even if it did, that is hardly a “consensus.” But it is absurd on its face to think that every Democrat, every moderate-to-liberal independent, every Biden supporter, cares more about the health of our political system than about their own political goals. I personally think that on average, liberals care more about fairness than conservatives. Let’s say for sake of argument we care twice as much. Or ten times as much.

Maybe five percent of conservatives have taken a principled stand against Trumpism–the “Never Trumpers.” Let’s be incredibly generous to liberals and moderates and say we are ten times as likely as conservatives to value constitutional democracy over our political goals. To be clear, I think that is preposterously generous to liberals. I’m using that number to make a point. If liberals are ten times as likely to put principle over expedience, then that gives us 50% of liberals and moderates who value constitutional democracy over their own political goals. So maybe 25% of the populace. Add the Never Trumpers to the principled liberals and moderates, and you are still well short of 30%.

The math just doesn’t look good for constitutional democracy. Up until recently, power in America was shared among groups who believed they could reasonably achieve their political goals and simultaneously uphold constitutional democracy, to the extent we had it. (“The extent we had it” excluded women through the early 20th Century and excluded Black people through the early 1960s.) And as long as you could have it both ways, we (those of us on the inside) did. But political, demographic and social change have led us to a point where it appears the Republican Party has concluded it can’t have it both ways. It can’t achieve its political goals and uphold the rules and traditions of constitutional democracy. It makes no secret of which path it has chosen.

Biden will win the popular vote, which means nothing in our constitutional democracy. He will probably win the electoral vote, and there’s a good chance that victory will survive the political and legal shitstorm the Republicans will unleash in its wake. So there’s a good chance he’ll be inaugurated January 20, maybe with a Democratic Senate. Our democracy will still not be safe. All of us–right, center and left–will need to think long and hard about whether we care more about our political goals or about constitutional democracy. And those who choose the latter will have to wrestle with what it means to be in the minority in that respect.