Russian Oil Production May Fall To 18-Year Low On EU Oil Embargo

  • WSJ: full oil embargo could send Russian production to 9.6 million bpd.
  • IEA estimates that Russia already shut in nearly 1 million bpd in April.
  • Russian Finance Minister Siluanov. production could drop by 17 percent this year due to the sanctions.

“Following a supply decline of nearly 1 mb/d in April, losses could expand to around 3 mb/d during the second half of the year,” the IEA said, referring to Russia’s oil supply.

Russia’s oil production is already falling and will continue dropping in the coming months and years as Moscow will not be able to redirect to China and India all the volumes it is losing in Europe—its biggest oil market before the invasion of Ukraine. Restrictions, combined with the lack of access to Western technology to pump harder-to-recover oil and enhance production from maturing wells will hit Russia’s oil industry not only in the near term but also in the long term, analysts say.

Russia itself has admitted that its oil production could drop by 17 percent this year due to the sanctions, TASS news agency reported, citing Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. In April alone, oil production fell by 9 percent from March. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent energy prices to historic highs, as the conflict has resulted in high market volatility and a coordinated round of sanctions targeting Russia’s economy. J.P. Morgan Research

J.P. Morgan

Oil Price at 10:30am

WTI Crude • 109.3 +3.21
Brent Crude • 110.5 +3.09
Natural Gas • 7.661 -0.078
Heating Oil • 3.978 +0.062

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