2022 Shellacking: A Data-Driven Preview

It’s no secret that Democrats are worried about the midterms this year, and they have a right to be. Not only do Democrats hold a systemic disadvantage due to gerrymandering and GOP overrepresentation in Republican-heavy states, they also have a knack for losing fights before they even start. Here’s part 1 in a hopefully 50 part series on why the Democrats should brace themselves, and why the nation should probably care enough to change things.

We start with Alabama.

Alabama 1st District

Alabama’s first district is a lightly red area, and a potential battleground in the state. The problem is, there’s no battle happening. No Democrat has filed for this district and the GOP didn’t do a primary. The incumbent, Jerry Carl, has advanced and barring a massive write in campaign, will be elected again. Jerry Carl, incidentally, is one of the 147 Republicans who voted to overturn the 2020 election and is a firebrand conservative, fully against abortion and fully for unrestricted gun possession. He is also a Trump fan and backed his wall.

Long story short, this is a district that has a chance, albeit slim, to go blue, against an extremist Republican, and Democrats chose not to even fight.

Alabama 2nd District

District 2 has extremes throughout, with the lower part being deep red and the upper part deep blue. It is also a battleground, and the Democrats are putting up a fight here. They’ve selected Phyllis Harvey-Hall to go up against incumbent Barry Moore. She’s lost handedly to him once already, and is herself an educator and proponent for rural infrastructure improvements, better access to healthcare and $12.50 minimum wage. Moore has been arrested for felony perjury (and acquitted), voted to overturn the 2020 election, accused a DC police officer of murder when he shot Babbitt, and voted to fiscally punish any region that implemented COVID safety guidelines.

Long story short, despite Moore being an extremist member of the Trump cult, he will probably win handedly again.

Alabama 3rd District

District 3 is very similar to 2, only in reverse. The lower part is deep blue, the upper part is deep red. It could certainly be a battleground. Difference is, this one has a spoiler by the name of Douglas Bell. Bell is a former Republican who lost to John Lewis in the past. He is now running as an independent, fiercely critical of spending, protective of gun possession, and pushing for theocratic discrimination in private businesses. He will likely strip votes from Mike Rogers, who enjoys a good lead from his last victory. Rogers is set to face Democrat Lin Veasy, an almost complete unknown who’s campaign page is almost impossible to find with a search. Rogers is known as a pork-barrel politician, who was the first to suggest a Space Force, and voted to overturn the 2020 election. Incidentally, he also created a bill making it illegal to mock the TSA. He is extremely anti-LGBT and anti-abortion to the point that he seeks to ban all abortion, and is fully dedicated to the Trump cult, signing on to a frivolous lawsuit trying to overturn the election results in another state.

He’ll probably win again.

Alabama 4th District

District 4 is deeply red, potentially the most red of any district in Alabama. This election is a rerun of 2020, with Republican Robert Aderholt running against Democrat Rick Neighbors. Neighbors is a veteran and business owner. He focuses on economic issues and education, and pushes for more support for the poverty-stricken region of Alabama that is the 4th. Aderholt is a tea party Republican turned Trump cultist, voting to overturn the 2020 election, opposes same sex marriage, and signed on to the frivolous lawsuit trying to over the election results of other states.

It’s almost 100% certain Aderholt will win again.

Alabama 5th District

The 5th district is also pretty red, the second most in the state. Kathy Warner-Stanton, an IT professional, is running as a Democrat focused on education, jobs and healthcare, pushing for more rural development. She will face one of two possible Republican contenders, Dale Strong or Casey Wardynski. Strong is the clear front runner, and is also a theocratic Trump cultist who really likes to push Christianity as policy. His background is in business and EMT work. Wardynski is an Army veteran and Trump cultist who pushes the Big Lie and wants to end all abortion.

It’s again almost a certainty that the Republican winner of the Primary will take the seat.

Alabama 6th District

District 6 is one of two districts designed to dilute Democratic support, but it’s not all that even. Even so, it is a potential battleground. Which is why it is once again completely daft that there is not a single Democrat who wants to challenge incumbent Gary Palmer. Palmer is a Freedom Caucus Republican who voted against the American Rescue Plan, then immediately touted its success at adding infrastructure to his district, attempting to claim credit for a bill he voted down. He is completely against abortion, same sex marriage, any restriction on gun ownership, and of course he’s a Trump cultist, voting to overturn the 2020 election and signing on to the frivolous lawsuit trying to over the election results of other states.

As he is unopposed, he will win.

Alabama 7th District

The 7th district is the only strongly blue district in Alabama. It was designed to group as many Democrats into one district, and it does so effectively. It’s the only district with a Democrat Representative, Terri Sewell. Like most Alabama Democrats, she focuses on Education, Economy and Healthcare, and has won many races unopposed and when opposed, won it handedly. She is up against Beatrice Nichols, a theocratic Trump cultist and teacher, who is against all abortion and is very much a Bible-thumper. She lists her idols as “Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, Kevin McCarthy, Cawthorn, and Majorie Taylor Green,” who’s name she misspells.

The other person running is Gavin Goodman, who there is not much information about in a quick google search.

This is the only district likely to produce a Democrat Representative.

Alabama Senate Races

There is one Senate seat up for grabs in Alabama. Democrat Will Boyd, a bishop, pastor, engineer, and educator, and perennial candidate, is running on the big three Democrat issues, education, healthcare and economy. He considers himself a moderate and focuses on representing the state in its entirety, thus the focus on the big three as it applies to all districts and regions.

It’s pretty much a consensus that he doesn’t stand a chance in hell.

His opponent is whomever wins the runoff between Mo Brooks and Katie Britt. Britt is a Trump cultist who pushes the Big Lie, and opposed COVID safety protocols. She is 100% anti-abortion in all cases, wants to ban CRT, and wants to end birthright citizenship. She is endorsed by Trump.

Brooks is a long time Trump cultist who has been burned by Trump for daring to suggest the GOP move on to the 2022 election. He is considered the weaker candidate despite serving as a 5th district Representative for over a decade, founding the Freedom Caucus, allying with Jim Jordan despite his ignoring of sexual assault on campus, and being a staunch supporter of the January 6th attack on the Capitol. Brooks continues to push the Big Lie, voted against certifying the 2020 elections, signed on to the frivolous lawsuit trying to over the election results of other states, and is currently being investigated as an instigator of the Jan 6th violence.

Britt is considered the likely winner.

Conclusion

Alabama is the 4th most red state in the USA. 52% of its inhabitants consider themselves Republicans, while only 35% consider themselves Democrats. Which in essence means the Representatives should be split 2D 4R, with one toss up. But thanks to gerrymandering most of the 35% of Democrats into one district, that will not happen. Instead we will see a rash of Trump cultists hold or win their seats, and the Senate seat will remain Republican held, this time by a fanatic potentially more indebted to Trump than Brooks was.

There is little to no chance for the Democrats to pick up anything in this state, nor of finding a way to balance the representation to where it should be. Democrats aren’t really even trying where they might be able to put up a bit of a fight.

I expect a shellacking against Democrats here. What do you think? Do any of the races seem winnable for Democrats? Do you think they should try to fight?

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