2022 Shellacking: Part 3: Arkansas

We covered the cause and purpose of this series in the previous parts:
https://breakingnewsandreligion.online/2022/06/14/2022-shellacking-a-data-driven-preview/
https://breakingnewsandreligion.online/2022/06/16/2022-shellacking-part-2-arizona/

Basically, we’re looking at each state and checking who is running and who is expected to win in each. This breakdown will hopefully give an insight into where and why Democrats are in for a bad time this year, and what they could have done about it, and why we as the people of the USA should care.

So far, we’ve found a 2 representative deficit for Democrats, and a potential seat flip in AZ for Republicans. 4 Republican seats aren’t contested, compared to 0 Democrat seats.

Let’s look at Arkansas and see if the numbers change.

Arkansas District 1:

District 1 contains the upper east part of the state and the east part of Little Rock area. It is largely Republican, though the Senate results skew more blue than other elections.

Republican incumbent Rick Crawford is running to hold his seat. Crawford, a veteran and radio anchor, regularly votes against environmental regulations, saying they stifle economic growth, and opposes LGBT rights including gay marriage. He signed on to a frivolous lawsuit that sought to prevent other states from certifying their 2020 election results.

Opposing him is Democrat Monte Hodges. a veteran minister who currently holds an AK House seat. There is very little to find on his stances and issues on his campaign site.

It’s a pretty solid bet that Crawford will win.

Arkansas District 2:

This district contains blue Little Rock area, but is surrounded otherwise by the northern red rural areas, making this district also solidly Republican.

Republican incumbent French Hill is running to hold his seat. Hill, previously a banker, has had many close races but hasn’t lost one yet. He’s praised Trump’s handling of the COVID pandemic, but refused to join in the attempts to overturn the 2020 election. He signed on to the commission to investigate the Jan 6th attack on the US Capitol. French is a classic conservative, pushing for limited government and less regulations.

He is being opposed by Democrat Quintessa Hathaway. Hathaway is an educational expert, with a Doctorates and years of experience. It is no small surprise that her main focus is in education improvements and infrastructure, as well as human rights. Her policy platform is extensive, and her campaign website is terrible (IMO)

It’s a pretty solid bet that Hill will win.

Arkansas District 3:

District 3 is a sea of red surrounding an island of blue in Fayetteville. This district is solidly Republican.

Steve Womack is the Republican holding the seat at this time. He is a veteran with over 30 years of experience and a Merrill Lynch financial consultant. He has been criticized for severe cuts in agriculture regulations by farmer associations. He is anti-LGBT, including against gay marriage. He was one of 35 Republicans to work together to create a commission to investigate the Jan 6th attack on the US Capitol.

He is being challenged by Democrat Lauren Mallett-Hays, a businesswomen and speech-language pathologist. Her focus is on healthcare access, education and economic growth.

District 3 will probably remain Republican.

Arkansas District 4:

District 4 is the other half of the split Democrat base in Arkansas, covering the lower left part of the state. Despite there being a large Democrat population, the race is still considered a solid win for Republicans.

Republican incumbent Bruce Westerman, a forester and engineer, won his election in 2014 on a relatively narrow margin. He is anti-LGBT, voting for a constitutional ban to gay marriage. He signed on to a frivolous lawsuit that sought to prevent other states from certifying their 2020 election results. Despite this, during the Jan 6th attack he grabbed a sword and hid in a toilet. His focus is on forestry and tax cuts.

Democrat John White is trying to unseat Westerman. There is very little information about him to be found easily online.

Based on the lack of presence of information, this is pretty much a lay up for Westerman.

Arkansas Senate Race:

John Boozman is the incumbent Senator for Arkansas. He was an optometrist before entering US politics in 2001. His main focus is forestry and veteran affairs. He is still a supporter of the Iraq war, which he voted for. Much of his legislation addresses services and government support for veterans. Boozeman originally joined the Big Lie, before changing his mind after the Jan 6th attack on the US capitol. Like Westerman, he voted for a constitutional ban on gay marriage, and voted against repealing DADT. He also voted against a commission to investigate the Jan 6th attacks, attacks he called “shocking and unlawful” and “a dark moment in our country’s history that we must reckon with today and in the days to come.”

Running against him is Democrat Natalie James, a business consultant. She wants to “expand access to Voting Rights for all, Criminal Justice reform, affordable health care, advocate for a living wage, end big money in politics, move our nation forward on the climate crisis, invest in our public education system, and restore hope and trust in our government.” Her primary focus is voter rights and access.

Boozeman is considered easily the favored in this race.

Conclusion:

Most of Arkansas is Republican. Only the lower east part is relatively blue, but it is split between two districts and the west side only leans Democrat in Senate races. All seats are held by Republican incumbents who are running again. The Senate seat is also a Republican incumbency. 46% of the state are registered Republicans compared to 38% Democrats. Despite this, due to location and districting not one seat is held by a Democrat. As such, the Democrats have a 1-2 seat deficit compared to population.

There are however no races that Democrats are not trying to win. Some put more effort in than others, and in the district most likely to go for Democrats (1) there’s very little to be found about the stance of the Democrat candidate. So while it appears there are attempts, unlike the previous states, it’s not much better.

Despite the Republican lean of the state, most of the Republicans running are not extremists. They are largely anti-LGBT, but otherwise pretty classic conservative. Many however still cling to the Big Lie, which remains a threat to Democracy.

To update our records, after 3 states reviewed we’ve found a 4 representative systemic deficit for Democrats, with maybe one seat to flip in AZ for Republicans. 4 Republican seats aren’t contested at all, compared to 0 Democrat seats.

Do you agree with this analysis? Which candidate would you like to see win a race?

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