Support for Ukraine has shattered experts’ predictions — and Putin’s

What they’re saying: “If anybody had told you in January that Europe as a whole, led by Germany, would be doing everything they can to cut fossil fuel dependence on Russia, you’d have said they were crazy,” said Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO. “And yet, that’s what they’re doing.”

Arms shipments to Ukraine over the year are without precedent, at least since World War II — and they’re still increasing.

Flashback: The West responded to the 2014 annexation of Crimea with sanctions. But their effects were manageable for the Kremlin. Germany — which relied on Moscow for more than 50% of its gas — maintained close economic links with Russia.

But once the invasion came, the response was far swifter and stronger than even most in the alliance would have predicted.

  • “The countries that had been most wary of offending Putin, basically, were shocked into responding in the way they did,” Daalder said. “And that includes, first and foremost, Germany.”

The Kremlin’s plans were predicated on taking Kyiv quickly, and essentially forcing the West to accept its victory as a fait accompli, said Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment.

https://www.axios.com/2022/12/24/nato-united-ukraine-arms-zelensky