Democrats could gain a seat in the U.S. House and multiple seats in Georgia‘s Legislature if a judge rules Republicans drew maps illegally weakening Black voters’ power.
The trial beginning Tuesday is part of a wave of litigation progressing after the U.S. Supreme Court earlier this year stood behind its interpretation of the Voting Rights Act, rejecting Alabama’s challenge to the law.
The Voting Rights Act says voting district lines can’t result in discriminatory effects against minority voters, who must be allowed a chance to elect candidates of their choosing.
Court cases challenging district lines drawn after the 2020 Census could shape 2024 congressional elections in states beyond Alabama and Georgia, including Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina and Texas. Taken as a whole, those cases could affect the narrow hold Republicans have on the U.S. House.
In Georgia, U.S. District Judge Steve Jones is hearing what is expected to be a two-week case without a jury. If he rules against the state, he is likely to order Georgia’s Republican-controlled General Assembly to redraw districts to comply with the law.
The trial yokes together three different cases, meaning Jones could rule for the challengers in some instances and not others.
Jones already ruled in March 2022 that some parts of Georgia’s redistricting plans probably violate federal law. He allowed the new congressional and state legislative maps to be used for 2022’s elections, finding changes close to elections would have been too disruptive.
Charles Bullock, a University of Georgia political scientist who studies redistricting, said he expects Jones to side with the plaintiffs.
“He found the plaintiffs had proven the elements of a Section 2 violation at that point,” Bullock said of the earlier ruling.
The plaintiffs challenging the districts argue there is room to draw another Black-majority congressional seat on the west side of metro Atlanta, as well as three more majority-Black state Senate districts and five additional majority-Black state house districts in various parts of the state. They point to Georgia’s addition of a half million Black residents from 2010 to 2020, nearly half of all population growth.
“Despite these striking demographic changes, the enacted congressional plan fails to reflect the growth in Georgia’s Black population,” the plaintiffs challenging Georgia’s congressional map wrote in a summary of their case filed with the court.