Ukraine refused to negotiate from a position of strength last year, even publicly opposing American advisors. But Ukrainians never had the requisite manpower to match Russian “escalation dominance,” as international relations scholar John Mearsheimer has noted, and without direct NATO support it was only a matter of time that the war would have turned against them. The recent Time essay quotes senior Ukrainian military commanders echoing Mearsheimer’s observation:
“They don’t have the men or the weapons,” says the officer. “Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the new recruits?” In some branches of the military, the shortage of personnel has become even more dire than the deficit in arms and ammunition. One of Zelensky’s close aides tells me that even if the U.S. and its allies come through with all the weapons they have pledged, “we don’t have the men to use them.”
Without a path to victory for Ukraine, the only realistic way forward to peace in Europe is a negotiated settlement.
Approved – Sully