Donald Trump has retaken the lead over Kamala Harris in the crunch 2024 battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to an average of recent polling calculated by the RealClearPolitics website.
The average of a dozen polls, conducted between September 11 and 29, gave Trump a 0.2 point lead with 48.1 percent of the vote against 47.9 percent for Harris. On September 18, the RealClearPolitics average of recent Pennsylvania polling had Harris in the lead by 0.6 point.
It comes as surveys continue to show a tight battle for the White House, with the vice president having a national lead of 2.8 points, according to an analysis of recent polling published by election website 538 on September 30. Due to the Electoral College system it’s possible for Trump to lose the popular vote, but win November’s election overall, as he did in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
The latest RealClearPolitics average of recent polls for Pennsylvania is the first to put Trump in the lead since September 16, when he was 0.2 points ahead of Harris. According to the website, Trump had a comfortable lead of around 4.5 points over Joe Biden before the president announced his withdrawal from the 2024 election in July. After Harris established herself as his replacement she quickly made ground, according to the website’s polling average, moving ahead for the first time on August 29.