Stopping Iran’s attack would have forced Israel to use sophisticated and expensive defences

Despite launching 180 ballistic missiles, Iran is likely to have wanted to keep most of its stock in case of a full-blown war with Israel.

Iran’s decision to launch about 180 high-speed ballistic missiles at Israel indicates that Tehran sought to inflict serious damage in Tuesday’s night attack, unlike the well-telegraphed drone and missile attack in April. Their sheer speed makes ballistic weapons challenging to intercept, but the initial reports of no fatalities within Israel and one in the West Bank would suggest despite the numbers of missiles launched it was a military failure, though some of the weapons or fragments appear to have struck the ground.

Tehran’s Emad and Ghadr missiles, used earlier this year, are estimated to travel at six times the speed of sound on impact or more, and take 12 minutes to fly from Iran. That would be more than 4,600mph. But Iran said it deployed the even faster, hypersonic Fatteh-2, with a maximum speed estimated at 10,000mph. Iran has been estimated to have an arsenal of about 3,000 ballistic missiles, though the original calculation was made by the US two-and-a-half years ago, so the number may well be higher. Tehran will have wanted to retain the vast majority of its stock in case the conflict with Israel further escalates into a full-blown war.

Firing so many ballistic missiles in a few minutes also represents a serious effort to overwhelm or exhaust Israel’s air defences. Because they are sophisticated, the interceptor missiles are expensive – and their stocks uncertain. Stopping ballistics in flight is principally the task of the long-range US-Israeli Arrow 3 and Arrow 2 systems, first used during the Israel-Hamas war, which are supported by the medium-range David’s Sling system. The better-known Iron Dome is used for short-range interceptions, often of rockets fired by Hamas from Gaza.

Iran’s decision to launch about 180 high-speed ballistic missiles at Israel indicates that Tehran sought to inflict serious damage in Tuesday’s night attack, unlike the well-telegraphed drone and missile attack in April. Their sheer speed makes ballistic weapons challenging to intercept, but the initial reports of no fatalities within Israel and one in the West Bank would suggest despite the numbers of missiles launched it was a military failure, though some of the weapons or fragments appear to have struck the ground. Tehran’s Emad and Ghadr missiles, used earlier this year, are estimated to travel at six times the speed of sound on impact or more, and take 12 minutes to fly from Iran. That would be more than 4,600mph. But Iran said it deployed the even faster, hypersonic Fatteh-2, with a maximum speed estimated at 10,000mph.

Iran has been estimated to have an arsenal of about 3,000 ballistic missiles, though the original calculation was made by the US two-and-a-half years ago, so the number may well be higher. Tehran will have wanted to retain the vast majority of its stock in case the conflict with Israel further escalates into a full-blown war. Firing so many ballistic missiles in a few minutes also represents a serious effort to overwhelm or exhaust Israel’s air defences. Because they are sophisticated, the interceptor missiles are expensive – and their stocks uncertain.

Stopping ballistics in flight is principally the task of the long-range US-Israeli Arrow 3 and Arrow 2 systems, first used during the Israel-Hamas war, which are supported by the medium-range David’s Sling system. The better-known Iron Dome is used for short-range interceptions, often of rockets fired by Hamas from Gaza. In April, a former financial adviser to the IDF chief of staff said that an Arrow missile typically costs $3.5m (£2.8m) a time, and David’s Sling interceptors $1m (£800,000). Eliminating 100 or more missiles would easily run into hundreds of millions of dollars – though the missiles themselves will have cost Iran £80,000 each or more.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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Article URL : https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/stopping-iran-attack-would-have-forced-israel-to-use-sophisticated-and-expensive-defences