Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
It is clear now that claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated.
From 2024 to 2025 Republicans lost themostsupport — 25 points, on average — among the very voters they theorized would remake the GOP into a vast, multi-racial, working-class coalition.
The vanishing Trump coalition
Let’s start with the voters who were supposed to cement the GOP’s new coalition: non‑white, working‑class/lower-income, and young Americans.
In the table below, I show the change in GOP vote margin for key demographic groups from the 2024 presidential election to 2025 elections (in Virginia):2
Note the pronounced shift away from Republicans among the groups that powered Trump’s 2024. Non‑white, lower-income, and young voters all shifted toward Democrats at above-average rates.