The long-awaited Ukrainian offensive has stalled. Only a small proportion of occupied territory has been reclaimed. Western leaders may soon begin to lose interest in a war that doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, and the “coup” launched by renegade mercenaries appears to have fizzled out.
Viewed from the Kremlin, perhaps the war may look like one Vladimir Putin can endure, even if the possibility of an easy victory has long since passed.
But there is one big problem. The rouble is in freefall. History tells us that a financial collapse can often act as a catalyst for wider political and military implosion. Putin is in far deeper trouble than it might seem.
Even with additional Western weapons and training, Ukraine’s armed forces have struggled to punch through the heavily fortified Russian lines. Without much air cover, it is incredibly difficult. And with the end of the summer approaching, there is little sign of a substantial breach.
The infamous Ukrainian “rasputitsa”, or “mud season”, will soon be upon us, with heavy rain turning the ground into marshy bog. By winter, the Ukrainian forces may have made little progress. The conflict is one of attrition, steadily turning into another brutal, First World War-style battle fought along trenches stretching for hundreds of miles.
R&I – TP
Enterprise7
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