The unprecedented tsunami of unemployment insurance claims, explained

The United States is facing an imminent surge in unemployment insurance claims that threatens to completely swamp the system for claiming and paying benefits. 

The surge is so unprecedented in historical terms that it essentially defies efforts to forecast where the economy may go in the future, and underscores the extent to which the looming coronavirus recession is completely different in its mechanics from the 2008 Great Recession but potentially even more severe in its impact. 

In Pennsylvania, for example, reports from the state’s Department of Labor and Industry suggest that they’ll see at least 121,000 new unemployment claims this week. By contrast, there were about 281,000 new claims across the entire country last week, which itself was a rise from the previous week’s level of 211,000 claims.

The Trump administration was so alarmed by the dribs and drabs of data leaking out from state agencies that it’s asked states to stop talking about the claims they are seeing until the full federal report comes out on Thursday. Meanwhile, a Goldman Sachs research note by David Choi projects based on what’s already leaked out that new claims will reach 2.25 millionwhen that report is finalized — a number that completely shatters all records.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/21/21188529/initial-unemployment-claims-goldman-sachs