America’s most influential coronavirus model just revised its estimates downward. But not every model agrees.

A leading forecasting model used by the White House to chart the coronavirus pandemic predicted Monday that the United States may need fewer hospital beds, ventilators and other equipment than previously projected and that some states may reach their peak of covid-19 deaths sooner than expected.

That glimmer of potential good news came on the same day New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) said his state may already be experiencing a “flattening of the curve.” New York reported 599 new deaths Monday, on par with Sunday’s count of 594 and down from 630 on Saturday.

By Wednesday morning, the model had been revised even more dramatically downward. It now predicts a total of 60,400 U.S. deaths by August and forecasts the peak of those deaths arriving in just four days on April 12, instead of April 16 as previously projected. Experts, however, have noted that this particular model’s numbers and projections — while used widely — have been consistently lower than those of other models.

RandyMarsh

Article URL : https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/06/americas-most-influential-coronavirus-model-just-revised-its-estimates-downward-not-every-model-agrees/