We have stepped into a new future. There are only two pathways forward
Events on the ground in Ukraine will evolve, but I find it difficult to see an outcome that does not end in subjugation. The most likely scenario remains that Russia annexes the territories east of the Dnieper and installs a puppet government—complete with a new, pro-Russian constitution—to control what is left of “Ukraine.”
And regardless of what various dupes and villains have been selling for the last few months, this was always the most likely outcome.
There are a number of discrete policy questions right now, but if you zoom all the way out to the 30,000 foot view, there are really only two options on the table for the West:
- We accept Russia’s new European order.
- Or we overturn it.
That’s it. That’s the choice.
So what would overturning the new order entail? It would include, but not be limited to:
- Massive, Iran-level sanctions against Russia and Russia client states (which now includes Belarus and will eventually include a Vichy version of Ukraine).
- Targeting of all Russian dirty money circulating in the West.
- Refusal of entry into NATO territories of Putin-connected oligarchs and their entourages.
- Large-scale buildup of military forces by NATO members made possible by dramatically increased defense spending.
- Deployment of NATO troops to all member states that border Russia/Ukraine/Belarus.
- Forking European energy policy away from Russian oil and gas supplies.
- Preparing for the next non-Treaty member crisis, most likely in Georgia.
- Preparing for an Article V crisis, most likely in Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia.
That’s the minimum ante for the attempt to overturn the new Russian order.
https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/what-you-need-to-understand-about?utm_source=url