Two Perspectives
Final Days
The Azov fighters, other irregulars and Ukrainian army forces numbered about 4,000 at the start and now have been reduced due to casualties. They include among them “foreign mercenaries” as the Russians have said for some time. Now from intercepted phone conversations of these belligerents, it appears that among the foreigners are NATO instructors. This means that the proxy war between Russia and the USA/NATO begins to approximate a direct confrontation, contradicting the public pronouncements coming from the Biden administration. Should the Russians succeed in taking/ these NATO instructors alive, which is one of their priority tasks, the next sessions of the UN Security Council could be very tense.
Looming Insurgency
The Russian military may soon experience a violent and tech laden insurgency the likes of which it has never endured — in Afghanistan, in Chechnya, or in Syria — and against which it may not prevail.
The Ukrainian military did not collapse the way Moscow likely expected. Instead, it proved adaptive and creative in battling Russian forces, increasingly through asymmetric means. If Russia seeks a permanent occupation of the Donbas region or continues with the kind of urban warfare currently underway in Mariupol, Ukraine will continue to resist asymmetrically. This will lead to an increasing reliance on established insurgent tactics. Small weaponized Ukrainian-made drones have appeared on the battlefield, but I believe repurposed commercial off-the-shelf drones will play an increasing role. Much like in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, explosively formed penetrators, vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices, and roadside bombs will join the battlefield in a big way. However, this insurgency will mature in weeks, not years, and the Russian forces are not prepared.