Early on Tuesday evening, The New York Times posted an item for its readers called Five Ways to Soothe Election Stress:
(Yes, we checked, and it is indeed real.)
It urged anxious readers bracing for the widely predicted Republican romp to “plunge your face into a bowl with ice water for 15-30 seconds.” Or, if that didn’t work, perhaps “breathe like a baby.” Or maybe “try five finger breathing.” (I googled that last one.)
But by Wednesday morning, conservatives and Republicans were the ones huddled under their weighted blankets downloading meditation apps.
For weeks, pundits and pollsters on the left and right had predicted a red wave, even a red tsunami. Some were predicting Republicans would gain 30 to 35 House seats. But that red wave turned out to be little more than a ripple.
Why?
Think about the context as Americans headed to their polling places on Tuesday: A president, Joe Biden, with an approval rating of 41%. The worst crime wave in decades. The worst inflation in more than 40 years. Americans in poll after poll, expressing deep dissatisfaction with the direction of the country after a pandemic that crippled it.
And still, while neither the House nor the Senate has been called, Republicans are expected to pick up a total of seven seats in the House, giving them far weaker control than polls predicted. The Senate looks likely to come down to a December runoff in Georgia. And governor’s mansions across the country are occupied by about as many Democrats as Republicans.
So why did Republicans perform so badly?
Here’s one theory: Trump.
Trump is poison. Trump lost in 2020 and on Tuesday night he helped lose at least 23 elections.
…
Here’s a second lesson: When abortion is on the ballot, it matters.
In the aftermath of the Dobbs decision in May, which repealed Roe v. Wade and rescinded national abortion rights, there were all kinds of predictions that abortion would drive this election—maybe even determine it. Then that narrative largely disappeared. Pollsters told us that abortion trailed voter concerns behind inflation, the economy, crime and immigration.
Tuesday proved that wrong. Exit polls showed that it ranked right up there with the economy for many voters. And abortion rights referendums—which were on the ballot in California, Kentucky, Vermont, and Michigan—won everywhere.
Approved ~ FS
