The past two years have seen a pandemic, the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the resurgence of urban crime, and a revival of inflation. Democrats and Republicans invested $16 billion in the midterm elections, expecting to profit from these upheavals. Yet astonishingly little about American voters’ preferences appears to have changed. Congress was balanced on a knife’s edge following the 2020 election, and it seems set to remain that way. Despite deep public dissatisfaction with the state of the country, incumbents of both parties appear to have enjoyed record rates of electoral success.
In fact, if Democratic senators Catherine Cortez Masto and Raphael Warnock hold their seats, 2022 will be the first Senate election cycle in which no incumbent of either party has been defeated since the 17th Amendment requiring the direct popular election of senators came into effect in 1914. (In that year, Democrats picked up two open seats from retiring Republicans, plus another from a Republican who had been defeated in a primary.)
This remarkable outcome was not due to an absence of pick-up opportunities for either side. The Senate was split 50-50 going into November 8th, with 21 Republican and 14 Democratic senators up for reelection. Yet the only gain for either party has been made by Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania—filling an open seat, following Pat Toomey’s retirement.
Incumbents enjoyed similar success in gubernatorial races, with only Republican Joe Lombardo ousting an incumbent, Steve Sisolak, in Nevada. Democrats gained control of governors’ mansions only in Massachusetts (where Charlie Baker opted not to seek reelection) and in Maryland (where Larry Hogan was term-limited). In both cases, the popular incumbents would undoubtedly have won if they had run again. An open race in Arizona looks to be going down to the wire, while Tina Kotek eked out a narrow win in Oregon’s contest to replace her Democratic colleague Kate Brown. The success of incumbent governors cut across party lines: Democrat Laura Kelly was reelected in deep-red Kansas, while Republican Phil Scott secured a landslide in deep-blue Vermont.
The power of incumbency explains much of the ticket-splitting that occurred. In New Hampshire, Democratic senator Maggie Hassan and Republican governor Chris Sununu both won by comfortable margins. In Wisconsin, Republican senator Ron Johnson and Democratic governor Tony Evers both won by smaller margins. In Georgia, the reelection of Republican governor Brian Kemp was accompanied by Democrat Raphael Warnock’s first-round victory over Herschel Walker; that race will now go to a run-off December 6, on which control of the Senate may hinge. In each of these Biden-voting states, Republicans may imagine they might have made more gains without the impediment of incumbency—as might Democrats.
Approved ~ FS
