On the heels of a new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report that highlights the need for Congress and the White House to get serious about reining in federal spending and debt, it’s critical to understand that high debt levels are not just numbers on a page; they have real‐world consequences. As debt grows and interest costs rise, irresponsible spending by Congress and the White House is taking a larger toll on American workers, reducing economic opportunity and their take‐home incomes significantly. It also puts our nation at greater risk of a sudden fiscal crisis.
The High Price of High Debt
Under highly optimistic assumptions that do not reflect already anticipated congressional moves to adjust tax and spending policies, the CBO projects that debt will reach 122 percent of GDP by 2034, as interest on that debt will exceed spending on defense this fiscal year. A previous CBO report illustrated how rising debt would make Americans poorer, reducing per‐person income by $14,500 in the year 2054, based on CBO projections that assume the debt will rise to nearly three times the size of the US economy. Excessive government debt drags down the economy by crowding out more productive investments that improve American living standards.
Additionally, as debt grows unabated, there is the risk of a sudden loss of confidence in bond markets, with investors demanding much higher interest rates that could trigger a debt doom loop and broader fiscal crisis. The 2009 Greek debt crisis and the UK’s 2022 bond market turmoil demonstrate how a relatively small catalyst can disrupt financial markets and lead to a rapid surge in interest rates that forces severe austerity measures, from sudden spending cuts to ill‐conceived tax increases.
Congress and the Biden administration should cut spending now while the economy is growing and conditions are favorable for deficit reduction, alleviating pressure on interest rates and the federal debt to grow, and before a fiscal crisis forces their hands. US legislators should learn lessons from what happened in the UK and Greece where a sudden change in investor perceptions triggered crises, instead of repeating their mistakes.
RandyMarsh
Article URL : https://www.cato.org/blog/another-cbo-report-warns-debt-surging-fiscal-crisis-brews