BELFAST — Two weeks into Ukraine’s incursion of Russia’s Kursk region, an ambitious tactical gamble involving an estimated deployment of 10,000 troops, the strategic benefit of Kyiv’s newly-claimed 480 square miles of Russian territory remains uncertain.
But, the move could have a major potential impact on the war over messaging to NATO nations who have, to this point, restrained Ukraine from using Western-made weapons for strikes into Russia proper, outside of over the border retaliatory salvos, over fears of escalation.
The thinking among NATO allies has been that if Ukraine is able to use weapons provided by Washington, London, Berlin or other capitals to attack Russian territory — excluding Crimea, which the governments have been clear they view as Ukrainian territory and hence fair game — that Moscow would view it as an act of war by NATO, and retaliate, either by invading NATO territory or launching some form of nuclear attack.
But if Ukraine can actively take and hold Russian land using Western-provided equipment, without Russia escalating to a conflict with NATO, then the restrictions on use of long-range strikes looks basically foolish.
RandyMarsh
Article URL : https://breakingdefense.com/2024/08/will-ukraines-kursk-incursion-lead-to-west-loosening-weapon-restrictions/