Trump Media lockup deadline leaves Trump with a choice: trigger a fire sale or hold a meme stock

Presidents can move entire markets with a single sentence. Donald Trump, a former president, sent a single stock soaring with just three words: “I’m not selling,” he pronounced at a press conference on Sept. 13, when asked whether he would offload the millions of shares he owns in his social media company. Buoyed by this declaration of faith from its largest shareholder, the stock shot up 27% to $20.76, before closing the day at $17.97.

Later this month, for the first time since Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG)—which owns Truth Social—went public, Trump will be allowed to sell his shares in the company. As the former chair of TMTG and a major insider, Trump is subject to a “lockup” provision that prevents insiders from selling stock in the newly public company before a certain date.

The lockup period for Trump, who owns about 57% of TMTG and is its largest stakeholder, will expire on Sept. 25 at the latest. If TMTG’s stock remains above $12, the lockup could end as early as Thursday, Sept. 19—a feat that looks increasingly likely. The price hasn’t dropped below $15 on any trading day since Aug. 22.

Trump currently owns 114.5 million shares of TMTG (ticker symbol: DJT), which are worth about $1.85 billion.

Trump’s stake in TMTG is likely a significant portion of his wealth. Forbes estimates Trump’s net worth to be about $3.7 billion, meaning the paper value of his TMTG shares would account for about 50% of his total wealth. Of course, as with anyone whose wealth is tied up in company stock, Trump’s net worth can fluctuate regularly with changes in the share price.

Trump cannot sell too much, too soon—in theory

As the lockup expiry date approaches, Fortune looked through dozens of SEC disclosures to examine the condition of TMTG. We found a company with a market cap of $3.1 billion—an almost inexplicable valuation given that the underlying enterprise is no larger than the size of a small family business. It has declining revenues, no profits, and is embroiled in multiple lawsuits. The company even confesses it made material misstatements in its financials reporting with no clear timeline of when it will be able to remedy them.

And—crucially for the company and anyone holding its shares—its future is largely tied up with the decisions of its largest individual shareholder: Donald Trump. The filings acknowledge Trump’s personal financial interests may hurt his investors because he has a right to vote his shares in ways that “may not always be in the interests of the Combined Entity’s stockholders generally.”

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