With just a month left before the presidential election, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is tightening.
After Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee in late July, early polling favored the vice president, with some national surveys giving her as much as a 7-point lead over Trump.
This shift marked a turnaround for Trump, who had led Biden in earlier polls. Since August 8, FiveThirtyEight’s election simulator has consistently predicted Harris as the likely winner over Trump. However, while Harris still leads Trump by 2.4 points nationally, according to FiveThirtyEight, recent polling indicates that the gap between the two candidates is narrowing as the election approaches.
The latest ActiVote poll, conducted from October 3-8, showed Donald Trump holding a 1.2-point lead nationwide. That came after a September poll from ActiVote had Kamala Harris ahead by 5.4 points. Both polls surveyed 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The October poll marked the first time since September 22 that Trump has been shown leading in a national poll.
Polls in the swing states have also looked positive for Trump in recent days. Recent polling from Quinnipiac University showed that Trump is 4 points ahead in Michigan in a head-to-head matchup and 3 points ahead with third-party candidates included. It also showed that Trump was ahead by 2 points in Wisconsin. Harris has led both states since the end of July, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Meanwhile, the poll put Harris 2 points ahead in Pennsylvania in a head-to-head matchup and 3 points ahead when third-party candidates were included—a lead within the survey’s margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
In Quinnipiac University’s September 18 poll, Harris held a lead in Pennsylvania, a slight lead in Michigan, and the race was essentially tied in Wisconsin.
However, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows that Harris remains ahead in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, which would give her enough votes to win, while Trump is ahead in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.
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