Ok, so it’s finally time to find out if we as a nation can cure cancer and get rid of a particularly aggressive tumor, or if it’s time to go through that bucket list. To celebrate the day I’m sharing my predictions and we will see throughout the day how they go. Let’s start off with the Senate:
5 Big Senate Races
Tester vs Sheehy
Leaving aside the fact that the Republican candidate is not a resident of Montana, and is instead a rich businessman flown in by McConnell, and the hilarious fact that his name evokes conservatives’ favorite bigotry target, Sheehy is likely to take the victory here. Montana is increasingly home to out of state rich folk and their hangers-on, and conservative policies have made many liberals look for better places to live, so the groundswell support that kept Tester in power in an increasingly red state will most likely not hold today.
I’m calling this for She-he, with an 85% certainty.
Brown vs Moreno
Moreno is a Columbian immigrant and businessman who again was picked by Washington GOP elites to try to take this seat in a reddish state. His main claims are that Brown isn’t Ohioan enough and that trans people are bad. However, Brown is not a national politician, and his support is still holding strong. This immigrant will likely not be stealing an American’s job.
I’m calling this for Brown, 75% certainty
Slotkin vs Rogers
Slotkin has a long history and is well liked in Michigan, while Rogers is a former trump critic who again bases his entire campaign on hating trans people and electric cares. Given his anti-abortion stances and the general outcome of women coming to support women and their rights, I don’t think Rogers has a strong enough case to counter that, even with the Arab protest vote regarding Gaza. Slotkin has no history in regards to that conflict either.
This one is going to Slotkin, 85% certainty
Casey vs McCormick
You might be surprised to learn that the Republicans are running a rich businessman from out of state who lost to their last rich businessman from out of state and lost. That is, you would be surprised if you expected Republicans to learn any lessons ever. Given that limitation, Casey, a household name in PA, will most likely not have trouble throwing yet another carpetbagger out.
This one is Casey, 99% certainty.
Gallego vs Lake
I mean, this one shouldn’t even be on the list, IMO. Lake is one of the more unhinged MAGA folk (and boy is that a hard bar to clear), she still hasn’t admitted she lost her last election gambit, and she’s running against a combat vet. Arizona is known for being independent and unpredictable, but I still think this is an easy call.
Gallego, 90% certainty
Bonus
Scott and Cruz are poised to lose their seats, both for being bottom feeding worms and for having run terrible campaigns. Despite how much the GOP wants to win the Senate, if they flip any two of the above I don’t see them much caring that Cruz is finally ejected.
I’m going with Scott barely scraping by, and Cruz losing, 50% certainty.
10 Key House Races
Schweikert vs Shah
This is a close race, with the GOP holding the incumbency but in a vulnerable district, and Shah has a more decisive victory in the primaries than Schweikert. No jokes here, this is a toss up, so as goes AZ, so goes this seat, IMO.
Shah takes it by a hair, 51% certainty.
Steel vs Tran
Oh how the CA Republicans must be triggered by the Democrat with a two point lead. The name alone gives them conniptions. That Tran might unseat long time underdog Steel is just an added slap in the face to the GOP losing Orange County.
I call it for Tran, 65% certainty.
Baccam vs Nunn
Nunn did win despite the odds last time, but he is running in a district that’s heavily favoring Harris and given the last Des Moines poll, I think his chances are, exactly, Nunn.
Baccam takes this one handedly. 99% certainty.
Theriault vs Golden
Theriault has an uphill battle, but it’s not one he can’t handle. This is a strongly Republican district, and while GOlden has defied the odds plenty of times before, there’s nothing specifically making people enthusiastic about this Maine candidate’s race. SImply by that lack, Theriault might just eak this one out.
I’m calling it for Theriault, 55% certainty.
Hertel vs Barrett
Pundits call this the most competitive race in the country. I call bullshit. Barrett lost handedly last time against MIchigan’s Slotkin, and given her support level, I think the down ballot effect will see Hertel take this one home.
Hertel, 65% certainty
Vargas vs Bacon
It’s hard to think bacon could lose in Nebraska, but darn those vegans, they just might pull it off. Vargas lost last time, and the polls reflected that. Polls now show him with a slight lead. So I’ll slightly call it.
Vargas, 55% certainty
Davis vs Buckhout
Republicans rejected the diehard MAGA firebrand Smith in the NC primary, electing to go with an Army vet and consultant in Buckhout. They also did a lot of redistricting, giving this district a much more red tinge. Polls still, however, show Davis with a sizable lead. ANd given the GOP has devolved into poop-throwing MAGA nuts, maybe they were wrong to reject their core voter base.
Davis takes this one, 75% certainty.
Lawler vs Jones
This race isn’t really close, but undoes a large part of the victories Republicans got when they won seats in New York. Jones is largely favored to win, and Lawler and his other colleagues are seeing stiff headwinds in the nation’s 4th most populated state.
Jones wins this, 85% certainty
Perry vs Stelson
This is one of those races that would make a good movie. By all rights, Perry should have this in the bag. But he’s a far right enabler of Trump’s attempt to steal the 2020 election, and holds views far out of line with most PA citizens. So a five point lead becomes a nine point trail. And given the way PA is trending left… yeah, this one is going with a happy Hollywood ending.
This one’s going to Stelson, 90% certainty.
Anderson vs Vindman
With Virginia looking to go blue this year, Vindman might just get the boost he needs to win reelection. But it could honestly go either way, which is troubling for Democrats nationwide. I feel the least confident about this one, but given the state going blue, I’ll give it to Vindman.
VIndman eaks out at 51% certainty.
The Swing States
General wisdom considers Arizona, Georgia. Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin swing states. I’ll throw in Texas, Florida, New Mexico and Minnesota for fun.
Arizona
Arizona is always a wild card, but given the way things have shifted in previous elections and the power of the issues there, I’m going to give this to the Democrats. This was not an easy call; immigration disinformation and actual struggles with the topic make this a sore spot for Democratic politicians. That said, they also have the best view of the actual situation, so are less likely to be fooled by far right rhetoric and far more likely to see what plans actually work to help. Given their noted independent streak, I think enough people will care about the overreach of conservative politics to Harris this year. But don’t take for granted Democrats; Arizona can be fickle.
Harris, 60% certainty.
Florida
I’m kidding, right? Well, not really. Florida doesn’t really have a reason to be as red as it is. Based on voter registration, it’s a solid purple state, and while the older population tends to vote conservative, poll after poll finds people discounting the fury women over 50 have for their hard won rights being taken away from the new generations. Coupled with DeSantis struggling to show any value from his extremist policies, Florida might just tip. I’m just not ready to call it that way this time.
Trump, 60% certainty
Georgia
Republicans have worked HARD for the last four years to make voting harder and discourage especially liberal people from voting. This stopped a rush towards becoming a blue state and slowed it to a trickle. Given the amount of shenanigans, I don’t know if the Democrats can pull it off again. I’d love to have this be yet another repudiation to Republicans, but they know how to use the system. It pains me to do it, but I give it to Republicans by a hair.
Trump, 51% certainty.
Michigan
They call it a swing state. I call 2016 a fluke. Given how hard Trump is campaigning there today, I think this is a good indicator that he’s as not strong there as he appears. This state isn’t going back.
Harris, 80% certainty
Minnesota
A Democratic-leaning state, but one that has a solid conservative vibe to it. It could be in play, despite what the pundits say. I’m still giving it to Harris, however, because Republicans have seemingly given it up.
Harris, 85% certainty.
Nevada
Another close call, Nevada has all the hallmarks of a red state: lots of dirt, not a lot of people, and a pretty anti-government attitude in general. That said, the biggest population centers do not like the GOP’s puritan stances or their attempts to regulate their bodies. So this one stays in the Democrats’ column, barely.
Harris, 55% certainty.
New Mexico
I am constantly amazed how this state is blue. By all rights it has some of the weakest data points in support for Democrats and Democratic national policies. But they must see the benefit of it, because they keep voting for Democrats nationally and locally. This one stays.
Harris, 65% certainty.
North Carolina
I also struggle to see how this state became a swing state. Growing up I would have never considered this to be one before Texas. But here we are. Apparently, seeing the result of far right policies in their southern neighbor is enough to push people towards Democrats. And as such, they’re pushing me to calling it for the D’s.
Harris, 65%
Pennsylvania
Hey Republicans? Next time you hold a MSG rally that gives serious 1939 vibes, maybe DON’T invite a comedian who calls 700,000 Pennsylvania voters garbage? Also, just stop the Nazi shit. Just let it go. It’s not a good look. No matter how many people light up a tiki torch for you.
Harris, 90% certainty.
Texas
Oh sweet hope for a blue Texas, you’re such a tease! Even though everyone hates Cruz and Texas suffers every year from terrible Republican policies, you still can’t break the right wing programming. I don’t know at this point what it will take; you’ll literally freeze your balls off every winter and still vote for GOP incompetence. As much as Democrats would love to keep the fantasy alive, it’s not today.
Trump, 75% certainty.
Wisconsin
Come for the cheese, stay for the out of state vigilantes shooting people over property crimes. This state is hard to predict, but given again the GOP’s obsession with extremist policies and only focusing on their limited base, I don’t see them winning them over. This one slides into the Dem’s corner.
Harris, 70% certainty.
US Presidential Election
I hate this feeling. In 2016, I was certain that Americans were, fundamentally, decent people who would never support a dictator wannabe who advocated for war crimes, bragged about sexual assault, talked about wanting to bang his daughter, suggested flagrant violations of the 1st amendment, and was in general an obvious liar and con man. But as any parent can attest, sometimes people you love disappoint you deeply. And now, 8 years later, there are still people who even after learning Trump is even worse as a person and a shit president, still want more of him.
I don’t know if I’ll ever get my faith in the USA back. But for today and today only, I am clutching that hope like Trump clutches a flag and Harris clutches a coattail.
My prediction for the 2024 presidential election is a Harris victory in the popular vote, and a 303 to 235 Electoral College victory for Harris.
Let’s see what happens!
Give your predictions below and for what it’s worth, I hope you all have the day you deserve.