Trump’s gains in reliably blue states like NY outpaced those made in battlegrounds that won him the election
President-elect Trump flipped six highly competitive states in his election victory last week — but his gains with voters were not limited to the battlegrounds.
Trump improved his vote share across the country, starting with conservative areas but extending into deeply Democratic states.
It is a critical part of the story of this election: one where Trump built a broader coalition and led on two defining issues of the campaign.
Trump gained in the battlegrounds and beyond, including traditionally Democratic areas
Trump gained in all seven of the battleground states. He gained 1.8 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania, 1.4 points in Georgia, just over a point in North Carolina, and under a point in Wisconsin.
(Trump’s largest gains are currently in Nevada and Arizona, two of 10 states where there is significant vote left to count.)
But Trump’s best performances relative to 2020 were in reliably Democratic states. These states voted for Democrats, but by narrower margins than before.
His strongest improvement was in New York, where the former and future president gained 6.4 points.
His county-level gains were spread across the state, but notably included an improvement in all five of the New York City boroughs (where, again, there are some votes left to be counted).
He also posted a 5-point improvement in neighboring New Jersey, enough to reduce the margin of his loss to just 5.5 points. That is the best performance for a Republican candidate in more than three decades.
Look for New Jersey and Virginia (Trump +2.4 since 2020) to become a focal point in future elections, beginning with next year’s gubernatorial races.
Trump also took more vote share in Illinois (Trump +4.2 since 2020), another Democratic state with a highly populated urban area.
Harris’ gains limited to a handful of disparate areas
So far, Harris has only outperformed President Biden’s vote share in one state: Utah, where she gained 0.6 points since the last election.
But even in Utah, Trump also performed about a point better than he did in 2020. It is third-party candidates who saw the most erosion. (And there are many ballots left to count.)
To find positives for Harris, you have to search for a smattering of counties across the nation.
Trump created a broader coalition and led on the top two issues
The Fox News Voter Analysis shows that Trump’s gains came from multiple groups, and that voters preferred him on two defining issues.
As the Polling Unit writes:
Trump’s victory was powered by his strength on the economy and immigration — two of voters’ top concerns. He was seen as a stronger leader than Harris in a time of turmoil, and voters remembered his presidency more fondly than their evaluations of the current administration. Trump ran up the score with his base while narrowing traditional Democratic advantages among Black, Hispanic and young voters.