Democrats Refused to Believe Polls Showing People Disliked Biden’s Economy
One of the reasons Democrats were caught off guard by the strength of support for Donald Trump across America is that they underestimated the importance of inflation and economic conditions to voters.
The economy was the leading concern among U.S. registered voters heading into the presidential race, according to Gallup’s polling. In a field of 22 topics, the economy was the sole issue on which a majority—52 percent—of voters indicated that candidates’ stances were “extremely important” in shaping their choice. Voters favored former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris by nine points as the candidate more capable of managing the nation’s economic challenges.
Democrats, however, have consistently downplayed the importance of the issue. Many pundits insisted that surveys showing low levels of consumer confidence were simply reflecting partisanship. They focused on cherry-picked economic data to argue that the economy was doing just great and claimed that voters would eventually come around to this point of view and reward Harris with their votes.
Pre-Election Polls Showed Democrats Weren’t Focused on Inflation
In the final poll by YouGov for the Economist before the election, 73 percent of Democrats said the Harris campaign was focused on inflation “about the right amount” (another six percent said she was talking about inflation too much). Only 15 percent of Democrats said she was not focused on inflation enough. Contrast that with the views of independents and Republicans. Thirty-one percent of independents said Harris was paying enough attention, while 49 percent said she wasn’t focused on it enough. Just one percent said she was too focused on inflation.
Among Republicans, 85 percent said Harris had not focused on inflation enough, and just nine percent said she had focused on it enough.
Weirdly enough, the poll shows that a majority of Democrats thought Trump should have focused on inflation even more. Fifty-five percent said he had not focused on inflation enough, compared with 33 percent of independents, and 15 percent of Republicans. Just 17 percent of Democrats said Trump gave inflation the right amount of attention, close to the 15 percent who said he was talking about it too much. A 42 percent plurality of independents said Trump’s focus on inflation was about right—as did 78 percent of Republicans.
Inflation Denial Still Runs Strong
Even now, after the election, Democrats appear to underestimate the importance of inflation. Asked which of fourteen different issues they think was the most important to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, just 27 percent of Democrats said “inflation and the state of the economy.” That was selected by 41 percent of independents and 52 percent of Republicans.
One additional note: Democrats also appear to have fallen out of step with the electorate on immigration. While immigration was ranked by independents and Republicans as the second most important election issue, Democrats ranked “racism and/or sexism,” the influence of billionaires, and misinformation higher.