For weeks, President Donald Trump has said that Canada should be America’s 51st state. He has mocked Canada’s economic dependence on the United States. He has condemned Canadian tariffs and trade restrictions. He has scolded Canada’s free riding on American defense. He has knocked Canada’s porous borders and drug dens. He has accused Canada of colluding with hostile foreign powers and global institutions. He has trolled our prime minister.
It’s delightful. Many Canadians are enjoying the show.
Up here in the cold white north, Trump has set the cat among the pigeons. Canada’s chattering classes are wringing their hands and gnashing their teeth. He has challenged their sense of entitlement. He has exposed their patriotism of convenience and knee-jerk anti-Americanism. He has exposed their haughty righteousness. He has identified rot that Canadian leaders refuse to acknowledge.
Here is some friendly advice for the president. The 51st state will not be Canada. The Canadian political establishment, largely centered in Ontario and Quebec, will fight it tooth and nail. Their vested interests depend upon the existing federal order of things. Big fish in small ponds will steadfastly refuse to abandon the pond. Canada will not join the United States as a single unit.
But the country’s provinces are a different matter. Some parts of Canada might be persuaded, one or two at a time, to come stateside. If there is to be a 51st state from north of the border, the best bet is Alberta. Even better would be to adopt two provinces, Alberta and Newfoundland, to start.
Canada has always been an unlikely country. It looks huge on the map, but most of its people live in a ribbon from east to west, close to the U.S. border. Canada is a layer of icing on the American cake. Trade and traffic travel primarily north-south across the border, not east-west within the country. Canada has long had tariff-like trade restrictions even between its own provinces.
The country is a collection of regions in permanent conflict. Some have legitimate and longstanding grievances. The strongest, wealthiest, and most aggrieved of these is Alberta.
A nascent movement to leave Canada has been bubbling in Alberta for a long time. They could start from scratch to draft a constitutional order that would preserve their liberty for the foreseeable future. They could even use the American constitution (not the Canadian one) as a model on which to improve. But many of these Albertans are interested in the potential of joining the United States, too.