Once again we find ourselves at the mercy of a political group that prefers narrative to fact, in this regard when it comes to crime rates in the cities of the USA. Given that it gets old to continuously state the same thing in response to these narrative-driven claims, and given that Disqus repeatedly tells me I’ve already made the same post over and over, I’m creating this guide with the latest statistics where we can argue to our heart’s content using actual data.
For reference, I am using the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) statistics from 2024. We will be looking at the top 315 most populated places in the USA, which is to say, populations larger than 100,000. And we are of course going to be looking at rates, not nominals, because you cannot compare nominals in this way, despite it being a popular rhetorical trick in politics.
Also keep in mind that this only looks at cities. We’re not looking at overall state rates, we’re not looking at rural towns. This is just to settle/reinforce discussions about US cities.
The Data
Posting the entire UCR here is a bit overkill, so those of you who want to look at some numbers directly can find a good overview with the 200 of the same 315 selected on Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate
For those masochists like me, you can find the UCR and other FBI statistics here:
https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/downloads
The Types of Crime
Let’s get this out of the way first: total crime rates consist of violent and property crime rates mixed together, with arson falling into the middle of that split. This means we probably want to know three things:
- Which places have the most crime?
- Which places have the most violent crime?
- Which places have the most property crime?
We can go deeper into the specific crime categories that make up those areas, but for now let’s just look at these.
The Numbers
When looking at the top total crime rate cities in the USA, there are 12 cities with double the average total crimes, and 33 more with at least 50% more crime than average. Out of those, the highest crime rate places are
- Memphis Tennessee (3.2x)
- Oakland California (3.1x)
- St Louis Missouri (2.4x)
- Little Rock Arkansas (2.3x)
- Tacoma Washington (2.2x)
- Pueblo Colorado (2.2x)
- Minneapolis Minnesota (2.1x)
- Portland Oregon (2.1x)
- Kansas City Missouri (2.1x)
- Detroit Michigan (2x)
Violent Crime rates only shows a different picture. with less concentration of crime in the top cities, but with a larger difference from the mean and median. 28 cities have double the average total violent crimes, and 30 more with at least 50% more violent crime than average. The top rates here go to:
- Memphis Tennessee (4.8x)
- Oakland California (3.7x)
- Detroit Michigan (3.4x)
- Little Rock Arkansas (3.2x)
- Baltimore Maryland (3.1x)
- Cleveland Ohio (3x)
- Kansas City Missouri (3x)
- Milwaukie Wisconsin (2.8x)
- Pueblo Colorado (2.8x)
- St Louis Missouri (2.6x)
Property Crime has slightly less dramatic differences, with only 14 cities having over double the average and 31 more with at least 50% more property crimes than average. The top includes:
- Oakland California (3x)
- Memphis Tennessee (2.8x)
- St Louis Missouri (2.3x)
- Tacoma Washington (2.3x)
- Portland Oregon (2.3x)
- Berkeley California (2.1x)
- Little Rock Arkansas (2.1x)
- Salt Lake City Utah (2.1x)
- Minneapolis Minnesota (2.1x)
- Lakewood Colorado (2.1x)
Arson, the in between category, has 35 cities having over double the average arsons (at far higher rates) and 39 cities with at least 50% more arson crimes than average. They include:
- Eugene Oregon (4.5x)
- Santa Maria California (4.5x)
- Salem Oregon (4.1x)
- Detroit Michigan (4x)
- Concord California (4x)
- Modesto California (3.8x)
- Memphis Tennessee (3.7x)
- Spokane Washington (3.6x)
- St Paul Minnesota (3.6x)
- Birmingham Alabama (3.5x)
There’s categories in each area that breakdown the type of crime, and while breaking them all down would take more time than most readers have attention for, I have broken down the violent crime categories of Rape, Assault, and Homicides, as these are often topics of debate.
As far as Rape goes, there are 20 cities having over double the average rapes and 36 cities with at least 50% more rape crimes than average. They include:
- Anchorage Alaska (3.5x)
- Salt Lake City Utah (3.4x)
- Peoria Illinois (3.3x)
- Pueblo Colorado (3.1x)
- Cleveland Ohio (3x)
- Chico California (3x)
- Columbus Ohio (2.7x)
- Dayton Ohio (2.5x)
- Little Rock Arkansas (2.5x)
- Akron Ohio (2.4x)
For Assaults, there are 29 cities having over double the average assaults and 35 cities with at least 50% more assaults crimes than average. They include:
- Memphis Tennessee (5.5x)
- Detroit Michigan (4x)
- Little Rock Arkansas (3.6x)
- Kansas City Missouri (3.2x)
- Oakland California (3.1x)
- Lansing Michigan (3.1x)
- Evansville Indiana (2.9x)
- Peoria Illinois (2.9x)
- Pueblo Colorado (2.8x)
- Shreveport Louisiana (2.8x)
Finally, murders are a category in which there are very clearly hotspots, with the highest variance in all categories. 38 cities having over double the average murders and 33 cities with at least 50% more homicide crimes than average. They include:
- Birmingham Alabama (8.5x)
- St Louis Missouri (7.8x)
- Memphis Tennessee (5.8x)
- Baltimore Maryland (5x)
- Detroit Michigan (4.5x)
- Cleveland Ohio (4.3x)
- Dayton Ohio (4.3x)
- Kansas City Missouri (4x)
- Shreveport Louisiana (3.9x)
- Washington DC (3.7x)
Analysis
Overall, the worst numbers across the board are pretty stark:
Little Rock Arkansas and Pueblo Colorado are dangerous across the board in every category.
Memphis Tennessee, Kansas City Missouri and St Louis Missouri have a very high score in all categories except for rape.
Oakland California and Minneapolis Minnesota and Nashville Tennessee have lower but still significant murder scores, and don’t have as much arson.
Detroit Michigan and Cleveland Ohio are dangerous but property crime there is less so.
If we were looking to make a map of the places most in need of extra law enforcement, or other way to reduce crime, we should be looking at those cities.
Also, if you want to avoid getting raped, maybe stay out of Ohio? Having 4 cities in the top ten list is a good sign of a major problem in the state, not just the cities.
You know what’s not on that list?
Baltimore. And DC. And Chicago.
Yes, Baltimore has a high homicide rate. And it certainly has an elevated violent crime rate in general. But rapes are not significantly higher and assaults are at the bottom of the elevated cities list (of 64 cities). Out of all the higher overall crime areas, it is also very low on arson and other property crimes.
DC shows an even more clear distinction, only breaking out of the norm when it comes to homicides. It barely rises above 1.5 times the mean in overall crime. Rape is well below the norm (0.73). Assaults and arson are both not significantly removed from the mean or median. And total property crimes is only barely significant (1.57).
And Chicago? At worst it’s 24th out of homicides. No other crimes come in as significantly removed from the mean or median.
So why, instead of focusing on the top ten
- Little Rock Arkansas
- Pueblo Colorado
- Memphis Tennessee
- Kansas City Missouri
- Oakland California
- St Louis Missouri
- Minneapolis Minnesota
- Nashville Tennessee
- Detroit Michigan
- Cleveland Ohio
Are Republicans so focused on the places where crime isn’t nearly as bad?
We’re going to dive deeper into the differences between these cities, and the general demographics and political forces in each, in a later post. For now, speculation is encouraged and I will take all claims into account in the next one.