After we dumped Donald Trump in 2020, I wrote an OP looking at if we had, in fact, Made America Great Again after 4 years of rule by to put it nicely a “non-typical” president. Since at the time we were in the middle of a global pandemic, hit far worse than we should have been, and had just fended off a Trump-induced attempt to overthrow the US election by attacking the nation’s capitol, it might not surprise you that the overall impression was quite negative. The statistics confirmed that even prior to COVID Donald Trump’s economic performance was poor, both relatively to other presidents and objectively in economic terms.
Now we are in version 2.0 of his actions, and the impact on the economy has been to say the least noticeable. So before we wait another 3 years, and because Trump promised to “fix” the economy on day 1 of his presidency, let’s give him 364 more days and see how it went.
1. Slowing Job Growth and Labor Market Weakness
Job creation slowed significantly in 2025 compared with recent years. On average, the U.S. added only about 55,000 jobs per month in the first 11 months – a 67% drop from the average monthly gains under President Biden, even towards the end of his presidency. Link
The unemployment rate also climbed to about 4.6%, its highest level in over four years, indicating labor market slack. Link
His policies, like cuts to infrastructure funding and aggressive immigration enforcement, are estimated to weaken job creation across sectors like construction and caregiving. Link
In summary, hiring slowed, and some sectors saw threats to job stability directly tied to administrative policy choices.
2. Tariffs Equal Higher Costs, Inflation Pressure, and Consumer Burden
President Trump imposed broad tariffs on imports from many countries, dramatically raising U.S. average tariffs. Studies show that around 96% of the tariff burden was passed on to American consumers and importers, meaning everyday households faced higher prices on goods. Link
Tariffs also affected business planning and confidence. Firms reported uncertainty about trade policy, making them hesitant to invest or hire. Link
Economists warned that tariffs act like taxes (because they ARE taxes), raising costs and putting upward pressure on inflation, leading the Federal Reserve to be cautious on rate cuts. Tariffs contributed to higher costs for consumers and businesses, dampening real purchasing power and labor demand.
3. GDP and Economic Growth Slowdown
While GDP continued to grow in 2025, parts of the data show significant weakness. Real GDP fell in the early part of the year as companies front-loaded imports ahead of tariff increases. Link
Independent forecasts made before the 2024 election have been tempered by trade tensions. Economic forecasting institutions have cut expectations for U.S. growth in 2025 and 2026 due to policy uncertainty and higher trade barriers. Higher trade barriers and uncertainty in turn weighed on GDP growth potential.
In the end the economy grew by 2.0%, which is down from President Biden’s 2.73% average (not counting the Covid recovery, which would put his average up to 3.6%)
4. Mass Federal Layoffs and Public Sector Cuts
Federal civilian employment cuts were substantial, and led to a mass population facing unemployment. Roughly 300,000 federal workers were laid off during 2025, a reduction of about 12% of the civilian federal workforce.
These layoffs not only reduced incomes for public sector workers but also potentially slowed broader economic activity in regions dependent on federal jobs. It also created severe delays or outright cancellations of economically stimulating federal and state projects, and made the government far less flexible and capable of responding to a crisis.
5. Consumer Confidence and Public Sentiment
Economic confidence matters for spending. Surveys indicated that a plurality of Americans expected the economy to worsen over the next year, the most pessimistic reading since 2023.
Not only regular Americans believe this to be the case, which sunk the Democratic Party’s chances in 2024. Economists and institutions have raised concerns about policy-triggered risks, such as when Federal Reserve officials cautioned that trade policy uncertainty could increase unemployment and inflation risks, or analysts warned that stricter immigration enforcement and layoffs reduce labor supply but also reduce consumption, contributing to slower growth. Link
6. Rising Debt and Fiscal Imbalance
The federal budget deficit widened massively in 2025. More than $2 trillion in new federal debt was accumulated in the first year alone. Link
Deficit expansion was linked to tax cuts that disproportionately benefited high income households, while providing minimal relief for low and middle income families. Link
These larger deficits constrain fiscal flexibility and increase borrowing costs for future budgets. It also reverses the trend under every Democratic administration of lowering government spending and lowering the deficit, and repeats the trend of Republican administrations increasing government spending and increasing the deficit.
Summary
In 2025, Trump’s policy choices coincided with slower job growth, rising unemployment, higher consumer prices due to tariffs, and a sharp increase in federal debt. All measurable outcomes, all negative, and all tied to explicit administrative actions.
Donald Trump’s second presidency is off to a rough start, even just looking at the economy, ostensively the topic that won him the election. These are just a few of the results; they do not take into account the economic and social damage of his immigration policies nor the foreign policy impacts on trade and opportunity. The next OP on this topic will look into a defense of his record, but please if you have some to offer include them in the discussion below.