Last week, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a new “strategic partnership” with Beijing
But no matter how loudly Davos applauds or how warmly a favorable press receives him, Carney doesn’t have the cards.
Ottawa will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles per year under its most-favored-nation rate of 6.1%, down from the 100% duty Canada imposed in 2024. That’s about 3% of annual new-vehicle sales. In exchange, China will cut tariffs on Canadian canola seed from approximately 84% to 15%,
If Carney’s strategic positioning isn’t a bluff—if he genuinely believes Canada can diversify toward China—then it becomes something worse: setting Canada down the road to deindustrialization. China does not “open up” to create balanced trade. It exports its way out of domestic weakness, local capacity erodes, and dependence on resource exports deepens. “by treating electric vehicles and canola as roughly equivalent trade-offs, Canada is confusing industrial platforms with bulk exports.” Trading industrial exposure for agricultural export access would turn Canada into a permanent resource economy and give Beijing another outlet for its overcapacity.
China just posted a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025—the largest ever recorded, even adjusted for inflation—and is preparing a new five-year plan that will, to no one’s surprise, double down on export-led manufacturing dominance.
Obey
Article URL : https://www.commonplace.org/p/canada-doesnt-have-the-cards