New projections of the 2030 U.S. Census indicating a major shift of electoral votes from traditionally blue states to red states could be a “game changer” in the quadrennial battle between Democrats and Republicans for the presidency.
Left-leaning California, New York, and Illinois could lose a total of eight congressional seats due to sweeping population shifts this decade, with right-tilting Texas and Florida gaining eight seats, according to an analysis by the non-partisan Redistrict Network.
The findings, which are based on 2025 Census Bureau population estimates and data from previous years, were compiled by Carnegie Mellon University redistricting expert Dr. Jonathan Cervas and released on Tuesday.
“I would not want to be where the Democrats are,” he emphasized. “The numbers don’t lie and the Democrats’ [electoral college] hill is getting steeper and steeper to climb.”
Veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson agreed that if the Census projections become electoral reality, “it would be a major barrier for Democrats” in winning the White House.