General Election 2019: What’s behind the Conservative victory?

Boris Johnson has won a decisive majority, on the back of a big swing from Labour to the Conservatives in Leave-voting Britain.

Yet north of the border the SNP dramatically almost swept the board.

With almost all results now declared, the prime minister is set to win a majority of 78 seats – the biggest Tory majority since 1987.

Meanwhile, at 45%, the party’s share of the vote is set to be at its highest since 1979, when Margaret Thatcher became prime minister.

Labour, in contrast, finds itself with little more than 200 seats, even fewer than the party won in its previous worst post-war result in 1983.

The difference between Leave and Remain seats

However, the swing in the Tories’ favour varied dramatically across the country.

In those seats where more than 60% of voters backed Leave in the 2016 EU referendum, the increase in Conservative support on average was 6%.

However, in those seats where more than 55% voted Remain, the party’s vote actually fell by three points.

In contrast, Labour’s vote fell on average by as much as 11 points in the most pro-Leave areas.

Its vote fell by only five points in the most pro-Remain ones.

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