- The study took samples from 3,000 people across 40 towns in 19 counties across the state of New York
- Participants were aged 18 and over and were selected randomly at grocery stores to have blood taken
- In New York City, 21% tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies; 16.7% tested positive in Long Island and only 3% tested positive upstate
- Among people aged 45-55, 16.7% tested positive and 15.9% of people aged 25-34 tested positive
- More than 22 percent of African Americans, Latinos and other non-white or Asian races tested positive
- The results, if accurate, mean the death rate across New York City is between 0.6% and 0.8%
- But it remains unconfirmed how accurate the test – which the state developed itself – is
- Private companies give precise percentages for their tests’ accuracy but the state just says theirs is ‘very’ accurate
- The testing brings some parts of the state closer to reopening if they have low prevalence levels
- However Gov. Cuomo has not yet indicated if he will end his May 15 lockdown early for any region
- There was an increase in deaths by 438 on Wednesday bringing the total number of deaths in the state to 15,740 and with 6,244 new infections, the total cases stand at 263,460
Here’s how to help people impacted by Covid-19
Also some corrections (in a comment) from Gail the Acturary at OurFiniteWorld
…according to the Johns Hopkins data. (There were substantial increases recently, when more cases (died at home with no test and nursing home deaths, I believe) were added) For another, you need to multiply by 100. When I calculate the amount with the higher number of deaths and 2.7 million New Yorkers, the death rate (to date) seems to be 0.7% relative to the number who seem to have antibodies. We need to adjust that for the fact that not all people with COVID-19 who have the illness have had time to die. If we adjust the numbers so that they would relate to COVID-19 that would have been apparent two or three weeks ago, the percentage would be 1.0%, or perhaps a little more.
A reader sent me a link to an article that talks about the problem of today’s antibody tests tend to produce a high ratio of false positives, especially if the expected number to people who are expected to text positive is low, as it would be in the “rest of the state.” https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis/spotlight/covid-19-antibody-tests-face-very-specific-problem
If we say that perhaps there weren’t really as many as 2.7 million New Yorkers with antibodies because of false positives, then perhaps the ratio of deaths to cases might be something like 1.5%. This is still less than the high percentage of deaths relative as a share of people who have caught COVID-19 that many people have been concerned might happen.