In addition to keeping an eye on the tragic, and climbing, numbers of total coronavirus cases and deaths across the U.S., it’s important to watch how those trends are playing out over time at the state level.
Why it matters: Rising, or falling, numbers of cases is one of the key metrics for determining where mitigation efforts are working and when the economy can begin to reopen.
The Trump administration’s reopening guidelines detail that in order to start lifting restrictions and reopening the economy, a state needs to report 14-day trends of fewer cases or fewer positive tests (though local officials do get some leeway in adjusting the metrics).
- Not a lot of states meet that criteria.
- By this metric, Minnesota, Nebraska and Puerto Rico have the most worrisome trends, while Arkansas and Wyoming have the most positive trends. Twelve states are moving in the right direction.
- But more than a third of the nation still has growing numbers of cases. And that includes states such as Texas and Virginia, where Republican and Democratic governors are beginning to unveil re-opening plans.
The bottom line: The virus isn’t just some other states’ problem. It’s everyone’s problem.