Vladimir Putin has launched an unprovoked ground war in a neighboring country after only the most perfunctory attempt to convince his own people, and with no groundswell of support behind him.
Why it matters: That’s a dangerous proposition for any leader, even an autocrat as entrenched as Putin. But while some experts believe high casualties or sanctions-induced economic distress could destabilize Putin’s regime, others contend that a quick victory would solidify his historic legacy in many Russians’ eyes.
Driving the news: Hundreds of protesters marched through central Moscow Thursday night chanting “no to war,” while hundreds more gathered in St. Petersburg, all despite an explicit threat of arrest from the Interior Ministry.
That stands in stark contrast to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, when the government actively mobilized mass shows of support for a highly popular operation.
Breaking it down: Most Russians were not expecting war on any scale, let alone a full-scale invasion, but a majority also accepts Putin’s argument that the West has created the crisis, says Denis Volkov, director of Russia’s last independent pollster, the Levada Center.
The bottom line: “Putin is starting to get more isolated from modernity, from the present time, and thinking of himself as a historic figure, making not politics but history,” Baunov says.