The party does have a story to tell about the creation of 7.9 million jobs – more over his first 14 months in office than any president in history – along with progress against the coronavirus pandemic, the passage of a $1tn bipartisan infrastructure law, diverse judicial appointments and leading the Nato alliance against Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
But opinion polls suggest this could be overwhelmed by Republicans’ characteristically blunt and visceral campaign targeting 40-year high inflation, rising crime, immigration at the Mexico border and “culture wars” over abortion, transgender rights and how race is taught in schools.
“It’s the ability to tell a story that relates to all Americans. All of which is to suggest that Republicans will tell stories that matter and Democrats will show statistics.”
Indeed, Republicans are exuding confidence despite still being in thrall to a former president who incited a deadly insurrection and despite offering no policy agenda. Florida senator Rick Scott, the chairman of the national Republican senatorial committee, published his own 11-point plan that includes forcing poorer Americans who do not currently pay income tax to do so, but it was swiftly disowned by minority leader Mitch McConnell.
Instead, Republicans are filling the vacuum by assailing rising prices at the petrol pump and at the supermarket (“Bidenflation”), increasing crime rates in major cities and Biden’s reversal of Trump-era policies on immigration. US authorities arrested 210,000 migrants attempting to cross the southern border in March, the highest monthly total in two decades.
The party has also reverted to its playbook of social and cultural hot-button topics, railing against a caricature of “critical race theory” (CRT) in schools and pushing state legislation to restrict abortions and ban transgender children from sport. It casts itself as a champion of “parental rights” while portraying Democrats as “woke” socialists bent on controlling lives’ and “cancelling” dissent.
Addressing the conservative Heritage Foundation thinktank in Washington last month, Scott warned: “We survived the war of 1812, world war one, world war two, Korea, Vietnam and the cold war. But now, today, we face the greatest danger we have ever faced: the militant left wing in our country has become the enemy within.”
“Republicans don’t have to run on anything substantive; all they have to do is say, ‘gee, look how screwed up these guys are.’ You’re going to see Republicans run a culture war-based strategy that drives the fear and loathing that White suburban families, particularly women, have over things that are not even relevant to their children’s lives, like CRT. And Democrats will be sitting there pissed off at all the wrong stuff.”