( Jun 13, 2022 ) Joe Biden’s Economy started to come into full focus Monday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 800 points, more experts predict a recession in the next year, and the S&P 500 officially hit a bear market:
U.S. stocks tumbled across the board early Monday with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh bear market, down 20% from its January peak, as investors wrestle with rising recession fears and as bond yields climb. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 3.27% – the highest since May 2011. In commodities, oil hovered at the $119 level and gas prices $5.01 per AAA.
In other news Monday, consumers expect continued rising inflation:
The median expectation is that the inflation rate will be up 6.6% one year from now, matching an 11-year-high recorded in March, according to the New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, which dates back to 2013. Three years from now, consumers see inflation hitting 3.9% – unchanged from last month.
The Federal Reserve Board is meeting this week, and they’re expected to raise interest rates. In addition to rate increases this week, they’re expected to raise rates again in July, September, and November – and this week’s increase could be a big one:
Some traders are even speculating the Fed on Wednesday may raise its key short-term interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. That’s triple the usual amount and something the Fed hasn’t done since 1994. Traders now see a nearly 33% probability of such a mega-hike, up from just 3% a week ago, according to CME Group.
In initial reporting the Associated Press revealed their disconnect from reality with this analysis (emphasis mine):
The S&P 500 was 3.3% lower in investors’ first chance for trading after getting the weekend to reflect on the stunning news that inflation is getting worse, not better.
Stunning news that inflation is getting worse, not better? As shown in the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, consumers have been predicting continued high inflation, and pricing news over the last months has shown rising costs and consumer pricing, especially for necessities like food and gasoline.
While some experts have been warning of a recession since the beginning of 2022, a new survey reveals that 70 percent of the macroeconomics experts surveyed at the beginning of June believe an recession will be officially called in 2023. From Forbes:
This will likely happen next year, according to a new survey of 49 U.S. macroeconomics experts conducted at the beginning of June by the Financial Times and the Initiative on Global Markets, an economic policy and market research center at the University of Chicago. The U.S. will officially be in a recession when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) identifies a significant decline in economic activity lasting over an extended period of time, usually thought to be two fiscal quarters. The economy already went through a dip in the first quarter of 2022, when GDP fell by 1.5%. Numbers for the second quarter will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late September.