It’s the go-to refrain for Democrats watching Joe Biden fall behind Donald Trump in polls: Just wait until Trump is convicted.
Yes, Biden’s historically unpopular. Yes, views of his job performance are growing increasingly negative. But if a jury of Trump’s peers in Manhattan, or South Florida, or Atlanta or Washington convicts him before Election Day, they say, it would have a dramatic impact on the race.
They’re probably wrong.
The evidence so far suggests the race might shift only slightly, by a few points. That could be important in another close election, but it’s not the kind of Trump collapse that Democrats may hope for — or Biden may need if his numbers don’t improve.
Trump’s legal peril is unprecedented, and the sentiment that a criminal conviction could be a mortal wound to his candidacy is mostly driven by political intuition right now. But we’re starting to get more data on how a conviction would affect Trump’s chances to defeat Biden, thanks to pollsters who’ve asked voters what they would do if a jury found Trump guilty.
R&I – TP
[Closed as duplicate. Original thread here: https://breakingnewsandreligion.online/2023/12/16/why-a-trump-conviction-might-not-save-bidens-reelection/ A27]
ConservativeChick
Article URL : https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/16/why-a-trump-conviction-might-not-save-bidens-reelection-00132125