Intelligence service notes significant rise in Russian military production.
Russia is gearing up for a potential armed conflict with Western countries within the next decade, Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service stated in a report published Tuesday.
“In the Kremlin’s mindset, they are not only fighting Ukrainians, but their chosen path involves a long-term confrontation with the entire ‘collective West,’” said Kaupo Rosin, head of the Estonian clandestine body.
While the chances of a military attack from Russia this year are low, Rosin believes, the future security of Europe and Estonia’s borders depends on Ukraine’s ability to deter Russian aggression with allied support.
The report notes a significant rise in military production in Russia, including of artillery and armored vehicles, that is enhancing Moscow’s ability to continue fighting. That surge could outpace Ukraine’s output unless the West escalates artillery production and delivery, Estonian intelligence finds.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia could maintain its current level of engagement in Ukraine for up to three more years, supported by accelerated weapons production.
Estonian intelligence also flagged a major change in Russia’s army: the formation of the Leningrad and Moscow military districts, aimed at NATO-member Finland. They also noted that Russia plans to expand its military from 1.15 million to 1.5 million members by 2026 in preparation for a potential conflict with NATO.
This expansion in manpower, it says, underscores the need for NATO and allied forces to significantly expand their defense capabilities. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger previously warned that Europe might need a decade to fully replenish its stockpiles of ammunition.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in December that Europe must boost its security and defense capabilities to meet the threat