When you talk about the 2024 race, a lot of it is going to come down to the battleground states.
As the RCP Average shows, former President Donald Trump is ahead in six of the seven states, with Joe Biden being ahead only in Pennsylvania–and not by much, 46.5 to 46.
The only other one that’s close is Wisconsin, where Trump is ahead by one point. On average, over all the battleground states, Trump is up by 2.8 percent. In the states other than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Trump is up three percentage points or more.
On Friday, CNN’s Harry Enten had some fascinating things to say about where Trump and Biden are at this point.
He spoke about Michigan, where Biden was declared the winner in 2020 by almost 3 points. Enten said Michigan was the swing state that Biden carried by the largest margin.
You know, on this particular one, if we were just looking at one poll, right, and saw, OK, Donald Trump ahead by three points, that’s well within the margin of error. But I want to sort of take a look here at the trend line, and that is that there really isn’t much of a trend line, there’s just a lot of consistency going on here. Fox, Trump plus three. “Wall Street Journal,” Trump plus three. CNN last month, Trump plus eight. Quinnipiac, Trump plus three back in March. And Fox, back in February, had Trump plus two. So, in fact, there isn’t any real trend line that we’re seeing away from Donald Trump.
But then Enten revealed something else that you just know is going to trigger Joe Biden, given how much Trump is in his head. Biden has become less likable since he came into office. Meanwhile, Trump has become more likable in that time.