The titanic Biden-Trump election likely will be decided by roughly 6% of voters in just six states, top strategists in both parties tell us.
- Each side will spend billions to reach those voters over the next six months.
Why it matters: Roughly 244 million Americans will be eligible to vote. But 99.5% of us won’t be deciders: We won’t vote. Or we always vote the same way. Or we live in states virtually certain to be red or blue.
Zoom in: Both campaigns are obsessed with six states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
- Those were the battlegrounds disputed by Donald Trump after the 2020 election. And they’re the ’24 toss-ups, as rated by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
Reality check: In our private conversations, Democrats are a lot more worried about November than Republicans are. Democrats say the race is winnable. Republicans think they’re winning. The swing-state map is a big reason why.
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/06/biden-trump-election-swing-states