It has happened. Two conclusions seem inevitable. First, that we are looking at a second Trump presidency, barring an act of God. Second, that between now and November lie four months of relentless identity politics.
Welcome to the American election 2024, Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris edition. With Joe Biden succumbing this evening to the ravages of age and Covid, he used whatever judgment he had left to nominate Harris as his heir and successor.
History will not view that decision kindly. For one thing, Harris is one of the least popular politicians to have ever occupied a post this senior. As I pointed out three weeks ago, a poll last year granted her the ignominious status of worst vice president this millennium.
In recent weeks, her popularity has bumped along marginally ahead of the Presidents, but still well into double-digit negatives, and about five points behind Donald Trump. Is it any wonder? A quick Google reveals that her stock-in-trade is that most toxic political currency, the gaff. She has quipped bafflingly about coconut trees, clapped along enthusiastically to a song attacking her in Spanish, sung The Wheels On The Bus idiotically to the cameras to a tune that nobody recognised, and repeated her gnomic motto – “what can be unburdened by what has been” – no fewer than 62 times in speeches, providing fodder for an eye-wateringly effective Republican attack ad this month.
On top of this, her record is yet to be tested. Take, for example, her checkered history as a self-proclaimed “progressive” prosecutor. In her 2019 campaign tract, she wrote: “America has a deep and dark history of people using the power of the prosecutor as an instrument of injustice. I know this history well – of innocent men framed, of charges brought against people of colour without sufficient evidence, of prosecutors hiding information that would exonerate defendants, of the disproportionate application of the law.”
Remove race from the equation, and Harris is a terrible pick for VP. Add it to the mix and she is still a terrible pick, but one that is far more difficult to avoid without igniting a row over identity politics. The Democrat party of today is composed of a sensible wing in mortal combat with a radical fringe, led by the lunatic Alexandira Ocasio-Cortez and her fellow members of the “squad”. If Biden would have allowed his successor to be elected at the upcoming party conference, the radicals would unite with the trade unions and may seize the nomination.
Such a disaster is likely avoided by the appointment of Kamala Harris. But who will she choose for her running-mate? Someone from the moderate, Biden tradition or a sacred cow from the radical Left?
Frankly, at this point it doesn’t matter at all. Biden has screwed America. Arise, President Trump, and God help us.