Some races are tightening but other key pickup opportunities are moving in the wrong direction, according to a new round of polling from the Senate Leadership Fund.
The top GOP super PAC charged with flipping the Senate has found that most of its candidates are trailing their Democratic opponents, according to an internal polling memo obtained by POLITICO.
The new round of October polling from the Senate Leadership Fund shows all but one Republican candidate running behind Donald Trump in battleground states, a pattern that could sharply limit their ability to build a sizable majority unless they can force a change in the final weeks of the election.
Republicans are still favored to take control of the chamber, and their data brought some hopeful news with tightening races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But other pickup opportunities, namely Maryland and Michigan, are moving in the wrong direction. And Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, one of the two incumbents running in a state Trump won in 2020, looks surprisingly strong in Ohio.
Some notable takeaways:
- Republicans have a modest but durable lead in Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has trailed Republican Tim Sheehy in recent public polling.
- In Ohio, Brown has dropped 7 percentage points since August but is still leading Republican Bernie Moreno by 6 points as of mid-October, and Moreno is running 8 points behind Trump.
- The group sees tightening races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) just 2 points ahead and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) just 1 point ahead in October surveys.
- Open-seat races in Michigan and Maryland are moving away from the GOP, with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan down 7 points in the group’s last two polls and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) growing her lead between September and October.
- The memo warns of two defensive problems: In Texas, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is only up 1 point in the latest poll, and Law describes Nebraska as “a serious trouble-spot” where they are polling to “assess whether intervention is necessary” to help GOP Sen. Deb Fischer.